«Regardless of the Trump administration’s future policy, one thing is absolutely clear — Washington will expect Europe to take on a much greater share of the burden in defending the continent, including the defense of Ukraine. We will be hearing a lot more about these European-led efforts in the coming months (and perhaps years.)»

Marianna Fakhurdinova, Associate Fellow at the New Europe Center, prepared analysis for CEPA about preserving U.S. aid to Ukraine under President Trump.

Key points:

• US military aid

Biden administration left around $3.8 bn in allocated funds for Ukraine unused, breaking its promise to use all funds before leaving office.

This highlights ongoing issues in US security cooperation, such as bureaucratic delays and slow replenishment of stocks.

The new administration will need to address these challenges if military support continues, especially as the Trump team now suggests a six-month timeframe for ending the war, rather than 24 hours.

• Ramstein vs NSATU

The 2024 NATO summit in Washington established the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) to replace the International Donor Coordinating Center (IDCC).

While Ramstein serves as a political platform, NSATU focuses on logistics, training, and technical support.

Although NSATU was reported to become fully operational in December, potential challenges include understaffing, resource shortages, and high personnel turnover due to short-term rotations.

• Capability coalitions

Aimed at building Ukraine’s long-term capabilities, 8 capability coalitions presented their roadmaps for developing Ukraine’s armed forces through 2027 at the last Ramstein meeting.

However, work is still needed to avoid duplication between coalition efforts and NSATU, and to integrate the two in terms of structure and personnel.

More details are here.