Sergiy Solodkyy, Director of the New Europe Center, commented for Ukrainska Pravda on the prospects for trilateral meetings between representatives of Ukraine, the United States and Russia, which begin today in Abu Dhabi, as well as the role of European partners in the process.

In the expert’s view, the current format resembles the Minsk negotiations and consultations in the Normandy format: meetings take place, but they do not change Russia’s position or its willingness to end the war.

According to Solodkyy, there are no signs that the Kremlin is ready to revise its demands. Moscow is counting on strengthening its negotiating position after the winter, while strikes on critical infrastructure are intended to exhaust Ukraine’s home front and economy. Holding negotiations while simultaneously launching attacks is not contradictory to Russia’s logic, as military pressure can be used to secure concessions at the negotiating table.

“One of the Kremlin’s main objectives is to bring about an end to military and financial support for Ukraine”, the expert explained.

Commenting on the proposal to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine as part of broader agreements on European security, Sergiy Solodkyy sees Russia’s approach as an attempt to revive the ultimatum-style demands it put forward in late 2021 and further prolong the process. Ukraine sought security guarantees because it became a victim of aggression and needs mechanisms to prevent it from happening again. Shifting the discussion towards Moscow’s similar demands undermines this original objective.

“Russia’s current demands dilute Ukraine’s legitimate request, allow the Russians to present their ambitions as legitimate, and essentially put the victim of aggression on an equal footing with the aggressor”, Sergiy Solodkyy stressed.

The expert also emphasised that European partners can influence the outcome through consultations with Kyiv and Washington before and between meetings, even if they are not sitting at the same table with the parties. In his view, the real measure of progress is not the number of meetings or statements about a “constructive atmosphere”, but whether the Russian delegation is capable of agreeing on concrete steps.

“So, at this point, I would be looking at whether the Russian delegation has the authority to agree on at least one step that can actually be implemented and verified”, Sergiy Solodkyy emphasised.

Read the full article at the link here (in Ukrainian).