“A key priority for Ukrainian diplomacy should be closer policy coordination with European partners aimed at ensuring that further Chinese support for Russia creates risks of political and economic losses in relations with the EU that are comparable to or greater than the benefits Beijing derives from its partnership with Moscow. Shifting this balance, rather than deepening bilateral dialogue as Kyiv has sought to do, could create the conditions for meaningful constraints on Chinese support for Russia’s aggression”.

Nataliya Butyrska, Senior Fellow at the New Europe Center, examines in a new analytical article for China Observers the limits of Kyiv’s engagement with Beijing and why dialogue alone is unlikely to change China’s position on Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The author notes that Kyiv seeks to keep diplomatic channels open with China to prevent it from fully siding with Russia. However, four and a half years of war show that Beijing’s support for Moscow is shaped by its own strategic calculus, above all its confrontation with the U.S.A, rather than by the state of its relations with Ukraine.

In the article, Nataliya Butyrska analyses:

• why Kyiv’s expectations and Beijing’s strategic priorities diverge, and what parallels between Russia’s conduct in Ukraine and China’s behaviour in Asia explain the strategic convergence of the two;
• how China benefits from the partnership with Russia, from favourable energy supplies to access to advanced military technologies and practical experience of modern warfare;
• why Beijing treats its agenda with Ukraine as a derivative of its relations with the EU, and what the selective rhythm of contacts shows, including the invitation to Kyiv’s foreign minister that has yet to be followed by a visit;
• how Ukraine’s dependence on Chinese components, with a full switch to Western-made alternatives potentially raising costs by up to 60%, narrows Kyiv’s room for manoeuvre;
• why closer coordination with European partners may prove a more effective tool than bilateral dialogue with Beijing.

Read more via the link here.