Kateryna Zarembo, New Europe Center
When Ukrainians headed to polling stations in spring 2019, five years after the Revolution of Dignity (aka Euromaidan) and the start of the Russian (still ongoing) hybrid aggression, many of them voted for change. What does this tell us about the current Ukraine and where it is heading? There is a number of observations from Ukraine’s current political framework.
- New faces, but old means (and threats).
The appearance of a number of new political actors, most notably Volodymyr Zelenskyi himself and his party “Sluha Narodu” (“The Servant of the People”) and the new party “Holos” (“The Voice”) of a popular rock singer Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, demonstrates the response to the popular demand for the new faces. However, it would not be fair to say that Volodymyr Zelenskyi won only thanks to his fresh ideas and aptness at social media – his popularity also stemmed from his role in “The Servant of the People” popular TV series, where he starred as a president and which was aired on “1+1” TV channel owned by Ihor Kolomoiskyi, one of Ukraine’s most influential oligarchs. Hence, new faces in Ukraine so far combine with old practices of oligarch support and the use of traditional media.
Meanwhile, despite the change within Ukraine, the threats which were around Ukraine all these years, namely Russia’s policies, remain unchanged. It remains to be seen whether the (so far) peaceful transition of power in Ukraine will translate into a peaceful conflict settlement with Russia at some point and not at the cost of Ukraine’s national interests.
- Reforms: progress at odds with public attitude.
In Ukraine the phrase about “more changes happening since 2014 than during the previous 23 years of Ukraine’s independence” has become almost a truism. The energy reform, in which aftermath Ukraine ceased gas imports from Russia completely, reforms in public procurement, decentralization, police, promising starts of reforms in education, healthcare and anticorruption, ratification of the Association Agreement and introduction of visa-
free regime with the EU, Ukraine’s army ranking among top-10 in Europe and Ukraine’s Doing
Business ranking climbing up slowly but steadily from 112 th place in 2014 to 71 st in 2018 – all
this is impressive for a country, caught by an armed aggression from one of the mightiest military powers in the world amid an economic crisis back in 2014 and 7,2% of its territory occupied.
However, the public seems to have a different attitude: appr. 70% of Ukraine’s population believes that things are going in the wrong direction. This translated into the presidential elections result – Volodymyr Zelenskyi, a comedian and political newcomer, beat Petro Poroshenko in the second round with the landslide victory of 72% against 25% of votes. With the trust towards Ukrainian public institutions being among the lowest in the world in Ukraine, it remains to be seen whether the new elites can continue the reforms and win the public approval at the same time.
- Civil society: still a fraction.
The public opinion polls reveal that the number of active citizens among Ukraine’s population hasn’t changed since 2013 – now, like then, it amounts to roughly 7% of the population, i.e. those who define themselves as activists and change agents. While it is bad news that this number has not increased, the good news is that these people, as five years ago, stand ready to defend their rights.
All in all, it is certain that a lot has changed in Ukraine five years after Euromaidan – the question is whether this change is enough to withstand amidst the increasingly changing and uncertain world. The past five years have been very challenging for Ukraine but it looks like the coming years are going to yet again put Ukraine’s sovereignty, prosperity and maybe even survival to multiple tests.
