“Ukraine, Moldova, and the EU need to keep up the current pace in the accession process. Ukraine in particular should use this time to adopt the two roadmaps on rule of law and public administration reforms. If well implemented, the roadmaps will create a solid rationale for opening the negotiation chapters once Poland takes over the presidency next year”.
Leonid Litra, Senior Research Fellow, New Europe Center, prepared the commentary for ECFR (European Council of Foreign Relations).
Even though enlargement has regained momentum, four main challenges lay ahead before the EU welcomes its eastern neighbours into the bloc. Further progress, and ultimately accession, will depend on:
- Internal EU politics: The rise of extreme and populist parties in the European Parliament and member states could threaten the bloc’s enlargement plans.
- Bilateral grievances: The EU’s enlargement policy has been often subjected to the bilateral agenda between EU member states and candidate countries.
- Progress on reforms: Irrespective of the internal EU debate, Ukraine and Moldova will need to continue to win the loyalty of the EU by implementing the required reforms.
- The security environment: Despite Russia’s invasion, Ukraine managed to navigate the process from an associated country to a candidate country. But even if there is more progress in the formal negotiations, it is highly unlikely that accession could take place before the war is over.
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