Merz’s Zeitenwende: What Ukraine Should Focus On to Make Germany’s Turning Point a Reality

We are pleased to present an analytical article by Kristina Zelenyuk, Associate Analyst at the New Europe Center, who joined our team in September 2025. Kristina has over 14 years of experience in journalism, 10 of which she has devoted to international reporting with a focus on EU and NATO affairs, Russian politics, and issues of war and security. She has also contributed as an expert to major analytical studies on NATO’s role, the history of wars, post-war recovery, and disinformation campaigns.

In her article, Kristina Zelenyuk analyzes the key challenges facing the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and their potential impact on Germany’s support for Ukraine. The study is based on interviews with German politicians, experts, and officials not only in Berlin but also across several cities in eastern Germany, including Dresden and Leipzig.

In May this year, Ukrainians warmly welcomed Friedrich Merz’s appointment as Chancellor of Germany, emphasizing that the world would finally witness a true Zeitenwende – a turning point in Germany’s foreign and security policy. After nearly six months in office, it is now possible to make preliminary assessments: what has worked for the new chancellor, what has not, and what Ukraine should pay particular attention to in order to ensure that Merz’s turning point indeed becomes a reality.

The author stresses that despite the rise of far-right forces and the difficult socio-economic situation, Germany remains a strategic partner of Ukraine. However, Kyiv must act proactively by offering concrete solutions that also enhance Germany’s own security.

Key Findings and Recommendations

1. The growing influence of far-right parties poses a risk of reduced support for Ukraine. Ukraine should intensify its communication efforts in Germany, emphasizing that with diminishing U.S. assistance, Russia has already escalated its aggression. The large number of “unidentified” drones spotted over German skies only confirms this trend.
2. Ukraine’s potential contribution to strengthening Germany’s security. Ukraine can position itself as Germany’s security partner by offering its technological and practical experience in countering drone attacks. This would allow the Merz government to present Ukraine’s partnership as a contribution to Germany’s and Europe’s collective security.
3. Overcoming challenges to defense investment.The development of joint defense production requires addressing issues of bureaucracy and institutional distrust. These are key to attracting German investments into Ukraine’s defense industry.
4. Communication about Ukrainians in Germany must be fact-based. Over 60% of Ukrainians of working age are employed and pay taxes into Germany’s budget. It is the overall social welfare system — actively used by many Germans themselves — that requires reform.

The full analytical article is available here in PDF-format (in Ukrainian).

A media version of the article has been kindly published by TSN.ua.

This material was prepared with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foundation.