On the fourth anniversary of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the New Europe Center’s Senior Fellow, Leo Litra, and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) held a roundtable discussion in Berlin to address Ukraine’s future.

The discussion highlighted that, four years into the full-scale invasion, the war has reached a critical and paradoxical juncture. We are witnessing a war of attrition where both aggressor and defender are battered, yet neither is broken. It is a deadly deadlock: too exhausted to conquer, yet too strong to surrender. However, history suggests that it is often within such deep stalemates that the window for diplomacy begins to open.

The roundtable took stock of the current situation and potential developments on the horizon. It examined the military capabilities of both the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces, while also analysing the economic realities behind the frontlines—contrasting Ukraine’s resilience with Russia’s shift to a war economy. Crucially, the discussion explored how the war’s trajectory might change if Ukraine were enabled with long-range capabilities and received greater funding for its own defence production and cooperative projects with partners.

Special focus was placed on domestic developments in Ukraine, specifically regarding reforms and public opinion on a potential negotiated settlement. In line with this, the participants analysed Ukraine’s readiness to call for elections and the possible sequencing of such a process.

As the political landscape shifts and US policy evolves, Europe was called upon to assume a decisive role. In this context, speakers explored whether a negotiated settlement is finally on the horizon and, most importantly, what credible security guarantees would be necessary to ensure a lasting peace. Regarding security guarantees, the debate placed particular emphasis on the idea of fast-track EU accession.

The event was moderated by Jana Puglierin, Head of the ECFR Berlin office, with inputs from Gustav Gressel, Senior Lecturer at the National Defence Academy of the Austrian Armed Forces; Jana Kobzova, Co-director of the European Security Programme at the ECFR; and Leo Litra, Senior Fellow at the New Europe Centre and Visiting Fellow at ECFR.