How can Ukraine and Japan democracy duo confront emerging “four horses of Apocalypse” alliance?

How can Ukraine and Japan democracy duo confront emerging “four horses of Apocalypse” alliance?

This was the title of the first discussion panel of the Fifth Ukraine-Japan Forum on March 5, 2025.

The speakers discussed such issues as:

How successful Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are in uniting their authoritarian efforts as the war continued?
How security situation in East Asia was influenced by Russia-Ukraine war?
What changes were made in China’s and North Korea’s security policies and practices under the influence of Russia war?
How Ukraine’s victory can contribute to “free and open Indo-Pacific” concept?

Below are the key messages of the speakers:

Yoshida Tomoyuki, Director General of Japan’s Institute for International Affairs (JIIA):

It is important to continue to engage the United States in improving conditions for lasting, just peace and security assurances for Ukraine. The efforts taken by the UK, France, and other European countries are very much encouraging in this area. The other important points are status over the occupied territory and reparation.

Sooner rather than later, the relationship between Ukraine and the US must be restored, and the efforts of the solidarity should be demonstrated to Russia. In this respect, the unity of the G7 countries is also very important. Japan, as a part of G7, should continue to support Ukraine for the unity of the G7 and to bring a successful peace settlement.

North Korea’s dispatch of its troops to the war in Ukraine, learning a lot about the modern warfare with the use of the drones, artificial vehicles, land-based robotic weapons, possible expecting from Russia the data provision, technology transfer to complete their nuclear and missile programs – these are strategic concern for Japan, Korea and other partners in the Indo-Pacific region.

The consequence of the war in Europe will inevitably affect the security situation in the Pacific region. As a deterrence, not a preparation for war, Japan made several steps:

it determined to modify its National security strategy back in 2022 and double the defense budgeting;
it determined to possess the counter-strike capability to deter the missiles;
the country submitted and approved the law to initiate active cyber defense against cognitive warfare, information warfare, and gray zone strategies;
the government is reinforcing its alliance arrangements with the United States further as the integration of the command system of both forces4
Japan is extending strategic partnerships with other countries – South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines.

Mykhailo Gonchar, President, Strategy XXI:

The Trump Administration is currently turning partners and allies into opponents. It is necessary to distinguish between Trump’s policy and the policy of the United States. And we should not rule out any scenario.

During a recent expert visit to South Korea, Ukrainian colleagues and I emphasized that South Korean air defense capabilities may not be sufficient to deter modern autonomous drone systems from North Korea.

South Korea is trying to maintain the status quo of peace, when there has been no war since the mid-1950s, hoping that it will continue to be so. This is a dangerous illusion. After all, the threat exists for South Korea. For Japan, it is more remote, but it also exists. Mostly because of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

Michito Tsuruoka, Associate Professor, Keio University:

Since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, the Japanese people’s awareness about security and defense is at an all-time high.

The weapons and ammunition production capability is essential for Japan because of two reasons. First, Japan itself is now increasing its weapons and ammunition stockpile for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Second is the need and challenge of making the international supply chain of weapons and ammunitions more resilient.

I believe that the position of the US or whatever country, being tough on China, but soft on Russia, cannot stand. It’s an illusion to be able to peel Russia away from China. That’s why there is concern about the challenge of maintaining G7 unity on Russia, but also on China as well. This is going to be one of the most important challenges for Japan in the months and years to come.

As for a possible inappropriate deal between the US and Russia, I think the US allies must keep telling Americans that it’s not in Washington’s interest to have an inappropriate deal with Russia. It’s in the US’s interest to have a good, appropriate deal because they are making too many concessions for too little.

Mykhailo Samus, Director, New Geopolitics Research Network:

Ukraine is Europe, and therefore, the security guarantees for Ukraine should not be separated from the prospects for the development of European security. Fortunately, Europe is beginning to realize this and is taking concrete steps to implement this vision.

Any ceasefire or peace agreement must include the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territories, punishment for war criminals, and reparations for Ukraine. Russia, however, seeks to avoid this. This is part of its strategy.

Japan can play a crucial role in supporting Ukraine, especially in a scenario where the United States may sharply reduce not only military assistance but also overall resource and economic aid. Ukraine’s stability will, in part, depend on such friends and close partners as Japan, which can also invest in our non-military production sectors.

Creating a reliable security system in Europe is only possible through the presence and provision of several key components. First and foremost, it requires strategic European deterrence forces, which must include the availability of ballistic and cruise missiles as well as long-range drones. Secondly, Europe needs air defense, which it currently lacks. Crucially, this air defense system must include European-made technologies.

Europe, including Ukraine, should develop it own nuclear doctrine, which can deter Russia and the armies of “axis of evil”, including China, Iran and North Korea. When we speak about NATO, current events, in particular the stop of support to Ukraine, tells us that NATO exist only on paper. The events that are happening right now should be perceived as the time for transformation and development of European strategic component. Only after this we can talk about operative and tactical aspect.

The “axis of evil” is now based on China’s military, technological, and resource capabilities. It is impossible to imagine that Russia could continue its war against Ukraine without China, North Korea, or Iran. We know that Shahed drones are Iranian products, and North Korea provides Russia with ballistic missiles. But none of this would be possible without China, which serves as the primary infrastructure behind Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The idea that the United States could hope to detach Russia from China, which is essentially consumed by it at the moment, would require a major shift in strategy. One possible approach would be to attempt to divide Europe and reintegrate Russia into Europe. For example, take the Nord Stream pipeline. Imagine if American companies began extracting gas in Russia, which could then be considered “American gas.” The U.S. could then ask Europe to resume the Nord Stream pipeline, or even the Ukrainian transit route, in order to begin transporting this “American-Russian” gas to Europe. This would create the conditions to gradually detach Russia economically from China by leveraging Europe’s energy needs and interests.

Yuriy Poita, Head of the Asia-Pacific section at Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies (CACDS):

Is it possible to implement the “Kissinger approach” or the so-called “Nixon 2.0” model in current environment? Analyzing the Chinese-Russian cooperation in 2022-2024, it is clear that their partnership is quite strong. According to the NATO declaration, China has become a decisive enabler for Russia’s war against Ukraine (a significant share of Chinese components and machine tools are available in the Russian military industry).

The volume of trade between Russia and China is growing – it now stands at $245 billion (China’s share of Russia’s trade turnover is 34%). In 2021, this figure was half as much – at 18%.

As diplomatic cooperation between Russia and China deepens, it will be very difficult for the United States to drive a wedge between Russia and China. After all, Moscow and Beijing depend on and value their partnership.

Chinese security experts, including those affiliated with the Chinese government, are actively discussing the Kissinger or Nixon model – whether the United States can implement it with Russia, normalize relations, and create conditions to turn them against China in the future. Almost all analysts in China believe that this is unlikely, as the model is difficult to implement for several reasons mentioned above.

The consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, the future settlement, will have a direct impact on Taiwan in particular and the Indo-Pacific region in general.

Hanna Hopko, Chairwoman, ANTS NGO’s Network, Former Head of Foreign Affairs Committee at Ukrainian Parliament:

When planning this panel discussion, we could only predict what the policy of the new U.S. President would be. Recently, he stated that the U.S. does not support either side, and now, it is clear that many around the world are asking how to act when the “axis of evil” is gaining strength, and the U.S. has chosen the role of a mediator.

The New Europe Center conducted research, and the results show that 64% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should not initiate negotiations without being given security guarantees. And this, of course, puts the official Kyiv in a very difficult position, especially when an agreement on critical minerals is just a framework deal without concrete security guarantees.

For Russia, the economy is not a primary concern. They allocate all their resources towards achieving other, purely imperialistic goals. This is the key difference that is often misunderstood in the U.S. Russians may offer promises, try to appease, and propose resources like gas and other mineral deposits to the Americans, but they will not give up their imperial ambitions and expansionist policies.

More on V Ukraine-Japan Forum https://cutt.ly/oryQswnW

Video recording is available in Ukrainian (https://cutt.ly/zrydEo2X) and English (https://cutt.ly/ArtOBrZC).