On April 4, 2024, the New Europe Center together with Ifri – French Institute of International Relations held the III Ukraine-France Forum in Paris.
Please, find below the key messages of panelists of Session 3. Big Euroatlantic deal for Ukraine: perspectives for the EU and NATO accession.
David Cvach, Direction of European Union, Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs of France:
All our efforts should be aimed at the victory of Ukraine. The victory of Ukraine will make it strong; probably the strongest country in Europe. It`s the power that will guarantee peace.
It is important for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO. French policy does not separate these two issues – Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO. Historically, the Alliance has always expanded first, and then the European Union (with the exception of some countries that have chosen the path of neutrality).
Can the EU provide Ukraine with sufficient guarantees? The word “sufficient” is particularly important. Obviously, there is a big difference between Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty and Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (in the second case, in particular, the USA’s guarantees). Europeans seek to achieve this sufficient strength to effectively support a member country in the event of potential aggression. So far, the EU has no levers to ensure security sufficiently.
We have a sense of urgency to protect Ukraine, as evidenced by President Macron’s recent initiatives. But this urgency should be a decisive approach for other EU countries, so that, in particular, the defense industry works at full capacity. This is exactly the message we need to send to NATO. The Alliance will exist and develop if Europe is strong. A strong Europe cannot exist without a powerful defense industry.
On the way to the EU, Ukraine has conditions that other candidates did not have before. It is necessary to be creative, diligent, work on reforms (especially in the field of the rule of law), in order to have no obstacles during the accession.
Oleksandr Sushko, Executive Director, International Renaissance Foundation:
In the context of joining the Alliance and the upcoming NATO summit, it is important for Ukraine to be consistent. One of the reasons why Washington and Berlin are ultra-cautious is their assumption that Ukraine at a certain stage can change its desire to join the North Atlantic Alliance (or use the issue of NATO membership at a certain stage of negotiations with Moscow).
It is important to understand and be honest with each other – in a short time we will not be able to solve the issue of “war and peace” by means of joining NATO. This is the tool that will work for a strategic perspective. Of course, providing Ukraine with guarantees under Article 5 of the Alliance would be a much cheaper solution and would significantly reduce financial efforts to end the war. However, no one knows how guarantees for the country would work when part of its territories are already occupied.
In my opinion, it is possible to take the position of ambitious realism: not to generate in the Ukrainian society excessive expectations from the summit in Washington, not to concentrate efforts only around one event, but to have a longer strategy.
There are two countries in Europe that have made the most fundamental changes to their strategic thinking in 10 years – Ukraine and France. And such a change in narratives a decade ago is not accidental.
Benjamin Haddad, President of the France-Ukraine Friendship Group at the French National Assembly:
According to recent polls two-thirds of the French support the provision of weapons to Ukraine. Such public opinion echoes the position in the French National Assembly, where the vast majority positively perceives the decision to support Ukraine. Active work continues on the decision to confiscate frozen Russian assets.
It is clear that we are now at the stage of an existential turn for Europe: either we tell ourselves that the Americans will limit their participation in solving European security issues in the near future, and this may push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, unfavorable for Ukraine, with catastrophic consequences for our security and with the creation of a precedent for the whole world. Or we are developing the means to take responsibility for our own security, giving Ukrainians everything they need to win this war, and changing our approach to the balance of power with Putin. We have been setting red lines for two years without setting any for Putin. Europe is waking up, changing roles.
While communicating with American partners, I often had to hear the opinion that the war in Ukraine is far for them and more concerns Europe. Therefore, to convince the United States to continue to support Ukraine, it is important to appeal to several messages. The first – the support of Ukraine by the United States will give the necessary signal to China. The second – support for Ukraine will give a signal to Iran, which supports Russia and Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is also important to remind the United States that Europe does not lag behind in helping Kyiv.
Iryna Solonenko, Senior Fellow, Center for Liberal Modernity (LibMod):
Ukraine’s accession to the EU is not a simple European integration aspiration, but a matter of survival. This is a big demand of society – more than 80% of Ukrainians support joining the European Union.
The European Commission (EC), based on screening, will propose conditions for opening negotiation chapters on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Then Kyiv will provide its position, and the European Union will respond with its own, where the conditions for closing all chapters will be formulated. Interestingly, the EC proposes for the 23rd and 24th chapters on justice and the rule of law to develop an action plan with transitional requirements. The final requirements for the closure of these chapters will be formulated only after their implementation. This is an important process, because observance of the rule of law is the basis without which integration into the EU is impossible.
There should be no shortcuts in the EU enlargement process. However, for Ukraine, given the process of restoration, reconstruction, it is possible to prioritize the implementation of chapters. That is, it is necessary to consider which chapters to open first, and which can be opened later. Because now it is not beneficial for Ukraine to adapt its legislation to EU norms in all matters, and in certain areas there may not be enough resource.
It is under pressure from a coalition of states in the EU, which can be led by France, and which are ready to say that Ukraine should win and Russia lose, that Germany can change its position. Fear of lag behind is an important factor for Germany.
Marie Dumoulin, Director, Wider Europe program, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR):
Ukraine and Moldova will remain vulnerable until they are integrated into Euro-Atlantic structures. Ukraine, which will come out of this war as a reliable, viable and powerful state with an experienced army, can become the main asset of NATO. Other states will rally around it. To do this, it must be a stable country that needs to be guaranteed victory.
The European Union is a union where everyone should be united. However, now we are in a situation where there is no common opinion of all participants. Because the EU has countries with different historical experience of interaction with Russia, Eastern Europe. Since February 2022, our biggest advantage has been unity. It must be constantly maintained. But the longer the war goes on, the more difficult it is to maintain such unity, which is important both for the EU itself and for Ukraine.
Leo Litra, Senior Research Fellow, New Europe Center, moderator:
During the French presidency of the European Union, Ukraine received the status of a candidate for EU membership. Now it becomes clear that this decision was far-sighted, because it was an invitation for Ukraine to return to Europe. Ukrainians have always considered themselves part of the European family. However, there was no such formal track for this process.
It is important to consider Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO in one package. Indeed, without security guarantees, Ukraine’s accession to the European Union may not take place.
Please find below the video record of the Forum (Ukrainian)
The forum is organized by the New Europe Center and the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) with support the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
We express our gratitude to the International Renaissance Foundation for supporting the international advocacy efforts of the New Europe Center.
