We bring to your attention the key messages of the speakers from the Session 2 of the Ukraine-Japan Forum “Confronting Putin – deterring Xi. How to deal with China’s long term threats in Asia and Indo-Pacific?”:
Yuriy Poita, Head of the Asia-Pacific Section at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies:
If Russia wins or consolidates its hold on the occupied territories, it will be perceived by China as a certain result and a sign that it can partially achieve its goals and then regroup and continue.
Overall, the current situation of the Ukrainian-Russian war somehow restrains China, but it restrains it in time, as China will more carefully review its approaches, tactics, armaments, military equipment for further actions.
7 conclusions regarding how China perceives the war in Ukraine:
- The war is a strategic mistake of Russia, as it will lose it. This may cause China to reconsider its tactics towards Taiwan and its support for Russia.
- Full-scale invasion of Ukraine was irreversible for China, as Russia, according to China itself, was excluded from the dialogue and “humiliated by the West.”
- China was surprised by Russia’s defeats. At the same time, it can benefit from this by analyzing its tactics and strategies.
- War of attrition is very bad, but China can gain some experience in trying to capture Taiwan.
- China will invest in the latest weapons and hypersonic missiles used by Russia in the war in Ukraine.
- Nuclear blackmail has become very effective in preventing NATO and the US from interfering in the war.
- China has decided to triple its nuclear potential.
Roland Freudenstein, Vice President and Head of GLOBSEC Brussels:
China wants to present itself as a global peacemaker, that is why we have that Chinese peace proposal, which already felt pretty flat. This proposal is not a neutral attempt at brokering peace, but it’s actually siding with Russia’s perspective: calling the war “a crisis”, complaining about sanctions and generally siding with the Russian way of viewing things.
Russia is interested in way more than subjugating and conquering its neighboring country. It basically wants to expel the US from the Euroasian continent and become the leading power in Europe. China’s ambitions also go beyond “the unification of the fatherland”. They do extend to other territorial claims, which is the reason why Japan has reacted so forcefully to Chinese threats against Taiwan.
For China a weakened Russia is okay, since in such a situation it will be easier for China to deal with this junior partner. Yet, China’s interest is that Russia must not lose this war, because the victory of Ukraine would be a blow to authoritarian states globally. On the other hand, China is interested that the war doesn’t escalate too much, which would further bring Western sanctions that disrupt a world economy at the point when China is economically weakened because of its failed Covid policies.
All this for us means that we not only have to altogether support Ukraine to win this war, but we also have together to deter China from threatening, possibly attacking Taiwan and also possibly threatening other countries in the Asia Pacific region. A successful Chinese imperial extension would be terrible for the entire world. This is why Europe comes in here, namely in contributing economic deters, in other words threatening China with really crippling sanctions in case it acts militarily.
Mykhailo Honchar, President of the Centre for Global Studies ‘Strategy XXI’:
When dealing with East Asia, we should not count on quick results, but rather reconsider our military approaches and the role that China plays in this. There is an illusion of political leadership where China is seen as a global player. If we take China out of this game, then everything will be resolved regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine.
After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, China proposed a solution to the Ukrainian crisis. However, at the same time, China abstained from voting for the UN General Assembly Resolution on the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Therefore, we should not trust illusions about China’s policies.
China’s failed experience in invading North Vietnam and Russia’s invasion leads to the idea that China may refrain from attacking Taiwan. But China is ready to take the prize whatever it takes even greater than Russia. But in all possible scenarios China will be defeated.
Tsuyoshi Goroku, Associate Professor at Nishogakusha University:
The Japanese new strategy made a new important point about Japanese policy concerning Russia. It turned at 180 degrees! Japan’s response to Russian aggression, including unprecedented sanctions, has been taken not only for solidarity with brave Ukrainian people, but also for trying to send a strong message to potential aggressors surrounding Japan.
The security of Europe and the Pacific region is inseparable. According to the public opinion, conducted last March, more than 80% support the government decision on sanctions against Russia. At least, the majority of people support the maintaining of sanctions, even if it damages our living cost.
In the G7 chair, Japan must provide leadership to maintain Western unity at the key moment of support for Ukraine. But at the same time, we have to be prepared for the long-time scenario, because China has not abandoned its goal of unifying Taiwan. So far, we may be able to delay the Chinese decision, but China will decide to use its force when it is convinced that it can succeed without any damage or without any sacrifice.
Moderator: Hanna Hopko, Chair of the board, founder of National Interests Advocacy Network (ANTS):
Let’s be frank, our optimistic rhetoric that we are winning has a slightly negative effect, as many people get the impression that in Ukraine, besides the military, women and children are ready to defend Ukraine. This is true. And we will indeed fight, we will not agree to any ceasefire or peace plan of the occupiers. We do not want the country to become a concentration camp. However, I think that the sooner the West provides us with all the assistance, the faster the world will avoid all the consequences of this war of Russia against Europe.
Bonji Ohara, Senior Fellow from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation:
China is trying to expand its influence in Europe at the expense of the economy. But its economy is getting worse because of Xi Jinping’s policies and sanctions. Therefore, Xi Jining may decide that China should conduct an operation on Taiwan and unite with it.
It is important to send a signal to China that it cannot achieve its goals through war. The main such signal will be Putin’s defeat.
African countries are important for Japan. And we are not abandoning our desire to improve relations with African countries. However, China also wants to improve them and has provided even more investment to Africa.
The Third Ukraine-Japan Forum was held on February 28, 2023. During the event, analysts and academics from Japan and Ukraine discussed issues related to the broader security environment in which both countries are operating today, as well as bilateral relations in the context of the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.
Also, during the Forum, the discussion paper “Responsible Partnership. How Russian war can reshape Ukraine-Japan relations” prepared based on the results of an advocacy visit of the New Europe Center experts to Japan, was presented.
Video recording of the Forum is available in Ukrainian and in English.
