Introduction of the martial law in Ukraine may consolidate the population around a common threat or alienate the population from the central government even further. This was emphasized by Kateryna Zarembo, Deputy Director of the New Europe Center, during the ninth Ukraine Breakfast Debate on the topic of “Attraction or Aversion? The Image of the European Union in Ukraine’s South and East” that was organized by the Institut für Europäische Politik on November 27.

Here are the main talking points presented by Kateryna Zarembo at the debate:

• Ukraine’s support for European integration should not be perceived as granted and irreversible. In fact, in Odesa oblast it dropped almost by half from 40% in 2016 to 24% in 2018. Ukraine’s East and South remain Eurosceptic.
• “Regions” is a delusive concept to describe Ukraine’s reality: for example, Odesa and Kherson oblasts, both belonging to the “South” are different in their attitude to European integration (in Odesa the majority is against, in Kherson it is in favour), security perceptions (the key security concern for Odesa is Russian troops in Transnistria, while Kherson is mostly concerned about the threat from the Crimea) and civic culture.
• It remains to be seen how the introduction of the martial law will affect the attitudes of the population in the East and South. On the one hand, it may consolidate the population around a common threat. On the other, pro-Russian forces will undoubtedly use the situation sending manipulative messages about possible infringement on civic rights and liberties, which may alienate the population from the central government even further
• EU’s and West’s reaction to Russia’a attack in Kerch Straight will be another test for solidarity around the international law and inviolability of borders and legitimate sovereignty, which will not go unchecked with the Ukrainians.