On April 4, 2024, the New Europe Center together with Ifri – French Institute of International Relations held the III Ukraine-France Forum in Paris.
Please, find below the key messages of panelists of Session 1. How the “War of attrition” can be won by Ukraine?
Rostyslav Ogryzko, Director of Europe division, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine:
One of our main problems is that we respond to Moscow’s steps. Instead, we need to understand a simple thing: Russia must lose. This should be Europe’s key interest for its own sake.
Why the phrase “as long as it takes” is not replaced with “as many weapons as you need to win”? After all, any other scenario means that the price for everyone will grow every day and, most importantly, the war can really spread to the West from Ukraine.
We need to understand the strategic importance of the moment – it’s about our future for decades – and start playing white figures. When I mention the White game, I mean, among other things, initiatives such as the one recently proposed by President Macron. Let the enemy seek answers, not us. It is extremely important to refuse of marking red lines to ourselves. I am glad that France is ahead in this context.
Mykhailo Gonchar, President, Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, Ukraine:
It is necessary to remove absolutely absurd and illogical strategy and tactics restrictions on the use of Western weapons. North Korea and Iran do not set restrictions for Russia, supplying it with ballistic missiles and UAVs. We must destroy the aggressor not only on our own, but also on its territory. The war must go on the territory of Russia.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine need means of protection – air defense systems, but we also need more long-range means of destruction to destroy the main logistics highway of the aggressor – the bridge across the Kerch Strait. From Crimea, the war began, in Crimea, liberated from Russian occupation, it must end.
Over the past two years, Ukraine has received a full-scale Russian invasion of 251 billion euros of Western aid. But Russia under sanctions earned only on the sale of energy resources 610 billion euros. Unfortunately, not only China and India, but in many ways Western companies, contrary to sanctions, continue to “feed the Russian crocodile” in the hope that he will not eat them. This is a dangerous illusion.
If someone in the West (in Berlin, in particular) proceeds from the fact to save on Ukraine, to stop helping it to save several hundred billion euros, then this is an illusion. Because later someone will have to spend trillions of euros to stop the Russian Goliath and the entire Asian Mordor (including North Korea, China and Iran), which is sinking into Europe.
The Kremlin continues to play on the fears of the Alliance of the Frightened, that is, NATO. In Europe, the epicenter of fear is Berlin. Like 10 years ago, like two years ago, unfortunately, NATO is still just such an alliance. The positive thing is that the “Coalition of Resolvers” is being formed on the initiative of President Macron, the solidarity position of the Czech President Petr Pavel, the leaders of the Baltic countries.
Olena Halushka, Member of the Board, Anticorruption Action Center (AntAC, Kyiv), co-founder of International Center for Ukraine victory (ICUV):
The strategic partners of Europe and Ukraine – the United States – are now undergoing a period of strategic uncertainty. We see this specifically with the relief package, which is still stuck in Congress and it is not clear how the situation will develop further. Europe must act.
Today it is already a war of the alliance of dictatorships, when Russia relies very firmly on Iran, North Korea, Belarus and other countries. We remember the statements that if North Korea supplies ballistic missiles to Russia, there will be a crossing of the red line, and the answer will be very decisive. Unfortunately, we did not see her. Taurus and ATACMS missiles have not yet been provided to us.
We need to stop supporting Ukraine on the principle of “as long as it takes.” It is necessary to provide everything necessary for victory – and as soon as possible! Because half-measures are very expensive, because the red lines that Western partners have imposed on themselves cost Ukraine and the partners themselves too high a price. What things must be done? To give Ukraine everything it needs to win on the battlefield.
We are aware that it is necessary to provide Ukraine with stable systemic financial assistance, and continue to advocate the confiscation of frozen Russian assets. We understand that this process may take time, but we emphasize that these funds can and should work to protect Ukraine today.
I believe that Ukraine can win this war with the support of Europe. But for this you need to stop supporting Ukraine according to the rule “a little here and a little there.” We must see the true will and actions that confirm the statements regarding the transfer to Ukraine of everything that is needed to win as soon as possible. This is the only way to ensure a stable, systemic, long-term, long-term peace on the European continent.
Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Director, Russia/Eurasia Center, Ifri, France:
This forum has a certain history: the topics we have been working on since 2022 recreate the evolution of war.
The First Forum took place on February 10, 2022, two weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This event was preceded by our trip to Ukraine, in particular to the eastern part, where we were received by the Ukrainian military. A small group took us to the contact line in Shirokino. I remember what the officer who accompanied us said goodbye: “Explain in your country what the “Russian world” is.
The Second Forum did not give hope for a quick peace. However, we hoped for the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
This year, the Third Forum, has a completely different context. Even more difficult in all plans, primarily in the military. There are no clear prospects for a stable peace. The situation is difficult for Ukrainian society.
Pierre Haroche, French researcher on European security, Lecturer in International Relations & International Security, Queen Mary University of London:
The existing support system for Ukraine is not working as it should. To increase efficiency, efforts should be combined at the European level, and not implemented from country to country. This can be achieved by aggregating the order into one critical mass, where all Europeans pay into a “common boiler” for the purchase of consumables: shells, drones, missiles.
There is another scenario similar to the one during the Cold War. If Trump is elected as a president in the United States, some European countries that oppose the continuation of the war may support his administration. They will demand an end to the provision of weapons and forcing Ukraine to negotiate. It is at that moment that we must be sure that we can close all needs with the efforts of the EU countries.
In the future, it is possible to consider the scenario of Ukraine’s sovereign decision to start a dialogue. In this case, the initiative of introducing the military forces of European countries into Ukraine will become important. This will strengthen the position of Ukraine, demonstrate that this is not about surrender and the Russians are not allowed everything. And negotiations will have to be conducted not only with the French, but in general with the European military forces. I am convinced that other European countries will also be ready to stand with the French military if this proves necessary. This will be a way to support Ukraine’s position in the negotiation process.
Brice Roquefeuil, Director for Continental Europe, Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs of France:
France’s support for Ukraine continues and will continue. It has different forms. From the very beginning of the aggression, France mobilized in support of Ukraine on all fronts of aid: humanitarian and economic, financial, and, of course, military. All this was specified by the signing of a bilateral agreement on the security of Ukraine.
Following the results of the last months of the EU’s work, much has been done about three important points of assistance to Ukraine:
- Last December, a historic decision was made. It opened negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. France is doing everything to ensure that the final decision on of the opening negotiations is made, because it is long-awaited.
- In February, a financial instrument was approved. It provides 50 billion euros of assistance to Ukraine for recovery and development.
- There are steps to establish peace. This means continuing to finance military assistance to Ukraine, not forgetting the development of the European defense industry. This is the only way the EU can meet the challenges.
Please find below the video record of the Forum (Ukrainian)
The forum is organized by the New Europe Center and the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) with support the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
We express our gratitude to the International Renaissance Foundation for supporting the international advocacy efforts of the New Europe Center.
