Leo Litra, Senior Research Fellow at the New Europe Center, spoke during the panel discussion “Changing the Narrative: What the EU Gains from Ukraine’s Accession” organized by Transatlantic Dialogue Center on July 22. The event was dedicated to rethinking how Ukraine’s EU accession is discussed by shifting the focus from the perceived costs of enlargement to the strategic opportunities and long-term benefits it offers the European Union.

The speaker also pointed out that changing the narrative and doing effective advocacy is far easier when there are visible reforms and positive developments at home. “It’s easy to do advocacy when things are going well at home. And this is a very important rule. But it’s quite rare that things are going very well at home. Then you need to adapt, be creative, and think about how to do this advocacy,” — said Leo Litra. Ukraine, he noted, already has many advantages working in its favor — but without sustained reform progress, it will be difficult to maintain a positive debate on its accession in European capitals.

The speaker pointed to France as a concrete example of why advocacy must be tailored to each country’s political system. He noted that under French law, ratifying Ukraine’s accession would require either a referendum or a three-fifths majority in Parliament — meaning Ukraine cannot secure French support through elite-level diplomacy alone. “France is going to be a big challenge for Ukraine. And this derives from its legal system, because in France you need either a referendum or a three-fifths majority in Parliament, which implies that it’s going to be quite difficult, since French MPs listen closely to their public. So it’s important to work both with the public and in Parliament,” — emphasized Leo Litra.

Leo Litra warned that Ukraine risks falling into the same trap of perceived futility that has long weighed on the Western Balkans’ accession process — the sense that no matter how much reform is carried out, membership never seems to get closer. At the same time, he stressed that responsibility runs both ways: the pace of Ukraine’s own reforms, and unmet expectations such as the failure to open all negotiation clusters, are feeding skepticism just as much as hesitation among EU member states.

He draw particular attention to what he calls the cost of non-enlargement, arguing that Europe has repeatedly underestimated the price of inaction — pointing to NATO’s 2008 decision not to offer Ukraine a membership path as a cautionary precedent.
“Back then, we were told that Ukraine should not become a NATO member because it would lead to a war with Russia. Ukraine did not become a member, and the war with Russia is ongoing today — precisely because of that wrong decision. That is the cost we are paying,” — said Leo Litra.

Leo Litra also underscored that Ukraine must not wait for ideal conditions before moving forward, and that sustained, country-focused advocacy — rather than broad but shallow engagement — is what ultimately shifts political will in EU capitals.

Watch the full discussion via the link here.