“Perhaps, for now, Russia still sees NATO as the greater threat. However, with Ukraine’s possible accession to the European Union, the EU’s military and geopolitical role will continue to grow. In the long term, Putin and Russia may come to view the European Union as a threat comparable to NATO”.

In a comment for Tochka Skhodu, Anton Alimov, Junior Research Fellow at the New Europe Center, explained that the opening of negotiating clusters between Ukraine and the European Union reinforces the irreversibility of Ukraine’s European integration path, while at the same time potentially intensifying Russia’s attempts to influence the accession process.

The analyst noted that although Moscow seeks to publicly differentiate between NATO and the European Union, in the long run it may come to perceive a stronger EU with Ukraine as a major geopolitical challenge. Russia will continue trying to obstruct Ukraine’s European integration, including by exploiting anti-Ukrainian political forces within the EU. To neutralize such efforts, the successful implementation of reforms and stronger public and political support for Ukraine across EU member states remain essential.