“Ukrainian society views security guarantees as a precondition for peace, not a result of it”

Alyona Getmanchuk, Head of the Mission of Ukraine to NATO and Director of the New Europe Center (2017–2025), emphasized during commenting on the results of a recent opinion poll. During the presentation, Ambassador Getmanchuk outlined key trends in public attitudes and what they mean for negotiations:

• 65% of Ukrainians believe that security guarantees must be clearly defined before any agreements to end or halt the war. For Ukrainian society, security guarantees are a precondition for a peace agreement, not its result;
• 87% of Ukrainians are convinced that Russia will sooner or later attempt to attack Ukraine again, reflecting the traumatic experience of the Budapest Memorandum and the Minsk process;
• Despite the fact that trust in NATO as an institution is lower than trust in the EU or the G7, support for Ukraine’s NATO membership remains high;
• The fact that NATO is not perceived as the main security guarantee reflects a broader societal trend: Ukraine must primarily rely on its own resources. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and our defence industry remain central in discussions about security guarantees;
• The opinion poll does not yet fully capture NATO’s new role this year in arms supplying and coordination of military assistance. For example, a significant portion of U.S. military aid to Ukraine is delivered through NATO mechanisms – PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List), NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) in Wiesbaden;
• Looking at the opinion poll results on NATO accession, support for a European contingent, and a defence alliance with the U.S., overall support is high, significantly higher than support for developing nuclear weapons. The focus remains on involving NATO member states in a potential architecture of security guarantees;
• The prospect of NATO membership is broader and deeper than just security guarantees; it is about guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty. A country that is denied the right to independently choose its alliances cannot be fully sovereign. Negotiation efforts converge on one major common denominator – developed with the United States – that Ukraine’s sovereignty must be preserved. The prospect of NATO membership is an integral part of this sovereignty.
  

The recording of the broadcast in Ukrainian is available on our Facebook page, and in English – on the New Europe YouTube channel.