Nataliya Butyrska, Associate Senior Analyst at the New Europe Center, in a new piece for Dzerkalo Tyzhnia explains how China combines military pressure with “soft” instruments — economic and cultural “incentives” — to strengthen its influence over Taiwan and divide it politically from within.

The article goes beyond external pressure, examining China’s systematic work within Taiwan’s domestic political environment — including cultivating ties with opposition forces, offering economic preferences, and building alternative channels of influence. This strategy allows Beijing to gradually undermine Taiwan’s unity without direct escalation.

According to the analyst, Russia’s war against Ukraine is already reshaping security calculations across Asia, changing approaches to deterrence and prompting a reassessment of the risks posed by protracted conflicts.

“The Taiwanese government, faced with constant military and hybrid threats from China, has focused on implementing a strategy of ‘peace through resilience and defence capability.’ This involves increasing defence spending, strengthening military capacity, and preparing both the armed forces and the civilian population for potential crisis and wartime challenges. In this context, Ukraine’s experience of asymmetric resistance against a much stronger adversary — as well as the resilience of its society, civilian infrastructure, and state institutions — is regarded by the Taiwanese government as an important case study,” explains Nataliya Butyrska.

Read more via the link (in Ukrainian).

The material was prepared based on the findings of an advocacy visit by the New Europe Center team to Taiwan, supported by the International Renaissance Foundation.