“The Only Thing That Can Change Putin’s Calculus Is Ukraine’s ‘Deep-Strike Diplomacy'”

This was stated by Sergiy Solodkyy, Director of the New Europe Center, in a comment for TSN.ua, where he analyzed the prospects for resuming negotiations in the US–Ukraine–Russia format.

According to the expert, the resumption of what he described as “meaningless negotiations” is entirely possible. The United States is once again showing interest in the negotiation process, while Russia will continue to play the role of a party allegedly interested in ending the war.

“Putin believes that the coming winter represents a decisive window of opportunity to force Ukraine into concessions. Therefore, although he will participate in negotiations, he will continue to drag them out for as long as he believes he can still achieve his objectives. Russia may also be counting on a shift in Trump’s approach after the US congressional elections. In addition, Moscow may hope for changes in the EU’s policy following the French presidential election”, the Director of the New Europe Center argues.

According to Sergiy Solodkyy, the Kremlin may therefore view spring 2027 as the earliest realistic timeframe for meaningful negotiations. However, in his view, Ukraine’s ability to conduct effective deep strikes inside Russian territory is precisely what could change this calculation.

The analyst also pointed to a shift in Washington’s rhetoric: the Trump administration is gradually moving away from promises of a quick settlement toward a greater understanding of the complexity of the conflict. “Washington has come to recognize that Ukraine is capable of changing the course of the war by delivering painful strikes against Russia’s rear. To use Trump’s own language, Ukraine now has ‘cards’ to play, and the White House appears ready to take this new reality into account”, Sergiy Solodkyy emphasized.

Nevertheless, according to the Director of the New Europe Center, a genuine turning point will come only when Russia suffers a substantial loss of the resources needed to sustain the war. “Whether Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia will not only weaken Russia’s military capabilities but also undermine domestic support for the regime remains an open question”.

In his interview, Sergiy Solodkyy also discussed:

• the motivations behind the Trump administration’s participation in the negotiation process;
• the Kremlin’s expectations of policy shifts in the United States and the European Union;
• Putin’s willingness to prolong negotiations despite formally taking part in them;
• the link between prolonging the war and preserving Putin’s control over Russian society.

Read the full interview on the TSN.ua website via the link here (in Ukrainian).