Отримувач: ГО «Центр «Нова Європа»
Код ЄДРПОУ: 41193596
Рахунок № UA363052990000026006046209958
Призначення платежу: “Благодійна пожертва на статутну діяльність”
Отримувач: ГО «Центр «Нова Європа»
Код ЄДРПОУ: 41193596
Рахунок № UA363052990000026006046209958
Призначення платежу: “Благодійна пожертва на статутну діяльність”
EXPERT POLL
The poll is a part of the big research of the New Europe Center on the risks and opportunities of different scenarios for the conflict settlement in Donbas.
65 experts (38 Ukrainian and 27 foreign) participated in the poll. It was conducted in February-March 2020. The experts had to assess the probability and desirability of each of the possible scenarios for the development of the situation around the settlement of the conflict in Donbas on a ten-point scale (the higher the score, the more likely or desirable the scenario). We would like to bring to your attention separately the estimates of Ukrainian and foreign experts, as well as the average of the total estimates of both Ukrainian and foreign experts. Script timeframe is one year.
The main findings of the poll:
Overall results
PROBABILITY | Scenario | Rating |
1 | Status quo | 7.77 |
2 | Freezing of the conflict | 5.64 |
3 | Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk Agreements | 3.85 |
4 | Autonomization (special status) | 3.80 |
5 | Reintegration of Donbas on the basis of decentralization | 3.73 |
6 | Russia’s offensive | 3.50 |
7 | Introduction of a peacekeeping mission | 3.27 |
8 | Ukraine’s military operation | 1.95 |
DESIRABILITY | Scenario | Rating |
1 | Introduction of a peacekeeping mission | 8.21 |
2 | Reintegration of Donbas on the basis of decentralization | 6.67 |
3 | Freezing of the conflict | 5.53 |
4 | Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk Agreements | 4.23 |
5 | Status quo | 4.09 |
6 | Ukraine’s military operation | 2.55 |
7 | Autonomization (special status) | 1.92 |
8 | Russia’s offensive | 1.02 |
Estimates of Ukrainian experts
PROBABILITY | Scenario | Rating |
1. | Status quo | 7.63 |
2. | Freezing of the conflict | 5.29 |
3. | Russia’s offensive | 4.29 |
4. | Reintegration of Donbas on the basis of decentralization | 3.89 |
5. | Autonomization (special status) | 3.76 |
6. | Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk Agreements | 3.55 |
7. | Introduction of a peacekeeping mission | 3.03 |
8. | Ukraine’s military operation | 2,03 |
DESIRABILITY | Scenario | Rating |
1. | Introduction of a peacekeeping mission | 7.89 |
2. | Reintegration of Donbas on the basis of decentralization | 5.89 |
3. | Freezing of the conflict | 5.87 |
4. | Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk Agreements | 5.45 |
5. | Status quo | 4.61 |
6. | Ukraine’s military operation | 3.21 |
7. | Autonomization (special status) | 1.58 |
8. | Russia’s offensive | 1.00 |
Estimates of foreign experts
PROBABILITY | Scenario | Rating |
1. | Status quo | 7.96 |
2. | Freezing of the conflict | 6.11 |
3. | Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk Agreements | 4.25 |
4. | Autonomization (special status) | 3.86 |
5. | Introduction of a peacekeeping mission | 3.61 |
6. | Reintegration of Donbas on the basis of decentralization | 3.50 |
7. | Russia’s offensive | 2.43 |
8. | Ukraine’s military operation | 1.86 |
DESIRABILITY | Scenario | Rating |
1. | Introduction of a peacekeeping mission | 8.64 |
2. | Reintegration of Donbas on the basis of decentralization | 7.71 |
3. | Freezing of the conflict | 5.07 |
4. | Status quo | 3.39 |
5. | Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk Agreements | 2.57 |
6. | Autonomization (special status) | 2.39 |
7. | Ukraine’s military operation | 1.64 |
8. | Russia’s offensive | 1.04 |
New Europe Center would like to express its gratitude to Ukrainian and foreign experts who participated in our research: Dmytro Shulga, Olena Snigyr, Valeriy Kravchenko, Sergiy Korsunsky, Olexiy Haran, Andriy Veselovsky, Oleksiy Melnyk, James Sherr, Richard Weitz, Tony van der Togt, Roman Waschuk, Christina Gherasimov, Gustav Gressel, Peter Dickinson, Alexander Duleba, Maciej Zaniewicz, Jilge Wilfried, Daisuke Kitade, Wojciech Konończuk, Miriam Kosmehl, Stefan Meister, Andrey Makarychev, Arkady Moshes, Mattia Nelles, Milan Nič, Stanislav Secrieru, Eleonora Tafuro, Daniel Szeligowski, Sergey Utkin, Maxime Audinet, Andras Racz, Hugo Klijn, Bob Deen.
Subscribe to the news of New Europe Center and find out everything first!
Subscribe to our newsletter, so you do not miss anything!