“Continuing to delay essential military packages does not bring peace closer. Instead, it validates Russia’s war of attrition and guarantees a far more expensive and dangerous future for European security. Ukraine’s allies must now decide between the resumption of support for Ukraine, or a catastrophic strategic failure that will cost far more than the current price of aid. The crisis facing the Ukrainian frontline is not one of resolve or capability, but a direct consequence of the 43% drop in military aid”.

Russia’s renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine is gaining ground – driven not only by Moscow’s military effort, but by a 43% decline in international military aid since mid-2025.

Leonid Litra, Senior Research Fellow at the New Europe Center, Visiting Fellow at the ECFR, warns in his latest commentary for ECFR that delays in support are turning into strategic losses that could reshape the future of European security.

The expert also explains that:

• Falling aid already affects the frontline: Russia now outguns Ukraine 10:1, advances in Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, and is scaling weapon production faster than Europe;
• The cost of not supporting Ukraine will be dramatically higher. Financing Ukraine’s victory: $606–$972bn Cost of reinforcing Europe if Ukraine falls: $1.4–$1.8tn;
• A Russian victory would hand the Kremlin control over Ukraine’s resources and defence industry, eroding NATO deterrence and destabilising Europe for decades.

The full commentary via the link here.